Is Assad’s Rule In Syria At Risk Of Collapse?

BEIRUT (AP) — The final time Syrian President Bashar Assad was in deep trouble was 10 years in the past, on the top of the nation’s civil warfare, when his forces misplaced management over components of the most important metropolis, Aleppo, and his opponents had been closing in on the capital, Damascus.

Back then, he was rescued by his chief worldwide backer, Russia, and longtime regional ally Iran, which together with Lebanon’s highly effective Hezbollah militia helped Assad’s forces retake Aleppo, tipping the warfare firmly in his favor.

Now, as insurgents pursue a shock offensive that rapidly captured not simply Aleppo, however the important thing metropolis of Hama and a string of different cities throughout the nation’s northwest, the Syrian chief seems to be largely on his personal.

Russia is preoccupied with its warfare in Ukraine, and Hezbollah, which at one level despatched hundreds of its fighters to shore up Assad’s forces, has been weakened by a yearlong battle with Israel. Iran, in the meantime, has seen its proxies throughout the area degraded by Israeli airstrikes.

Moreover, Syrian troops are exhausted and hollowed out by 13 years of warfare and financial crises, with little will left to combat.

So will Assad’s rule collapse within the close to future?

“The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining whether the rebel offensive poses an existential threat to the Assad regime or whether the regime manages to regain its footing and push back on recent rebel gains,” stated Mona Yacoubian, an analyst with the United States Institute for Peace.

“While weakened and distracted, Assad’s allies are unlikely to simply cave to the rebels’ offensive,” she wrote in an evaluation.

Until just lately, it appeared that Syria’s president was virtually out of the woods. He by no means actually received the long-running civil warfare, and huge components of the nation had been nonetheless outdoors his management.

But after 13 years of battle, it appeared that the worst was over and that the world was able to neglect. Once seen as a regional pariah, Assad noticed Arab nations warming as much as him once more, renewing ties and reinstating Syria’s membership within the Arab League. Earlier this yr, Italy additionally determined to reopen its embassy in Damascus after a decade of strained relations.

In the aftermath of one of many world’s largest humanitarian crises, help teams and worldwide donors in Syria started pivoting towards spending extra on the nation’s restoration than on emergency help, offering a lifeline for Syrians and restoring primary providers.

But then the sudden offensive launched by insurgents on Nov. 27 reignited the warfare and caught everybody off guard with its scope and velocity.

It additionally left Syria’s neighbors anxious, cautious that violence and refugees may spill throughout borders and fearful in regards to the rising affect of Islamist teams, a serious concern for many of Syria’s Arab neighbors.

Analysts say a confluence of geopolitical developments starting with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, adopted by the Israel-Hamas warfare in Gaza that began on Oct. 7, 2023, helped create the chance for Assad’s opponents to pounce.

As the rebels superior this previous week, Syrian forces appeared to soften away, placing up no resistance, with a number of experiences of defection. Russian forces carried out occasional airstrikes. Hezbollah’s chief in Lebanon stated the group will proceed to assist Syria, however made no point out of sending fighters once more.

“The rebel assault underscores the precarious nature of regime control in Syria,” Yacoubian wrote.

“Its sudden eruption and the speed with which rebel groups managed to overtake Aleppo … expose the complex dynamics that reside just below the surface in Syria and can transform superficial calm into major conflict.”

Aron Lund, a Syria skilled with Century International, a New York-based assume tank and a researcher with the Swedish Defense Research Agency, stated the developments in Syria are a geopolitical catastrophe for Russia and Iran.

“They too were surely surprised by what happened, and they have all sorts of resource constraints,” together with Russia’s warfare in Ukraine and Hezbollah’s losses in Lebanon and Syria.

While the nation’s battle strains have been largely stalemated since 2020, Syria’s financial woes have solely multiplied up to now few years.

The imposition of U.S. sanctions, a banking disaster in neighboring Lebanon and an earthquake final yr contributed to the truth that virtually all Syrians face excessive monetary hardship.

That has triggered state establishments and salaries to wither.

“If you can’t pay your soldiers a living wage, then maybe you can’t expect them to stay and fight when thousands of Islamists storm” their cities, Lund stated. “It is just an exhausted, broken and dysfunctional regime” to begin with.

Part of the insurgents’ try and reassert their grip on Aleppo, town the place they had been ousted in 2016 after a grueling navy marketing campaign, was to difficulty a name to authorities troopers and safety businesses to defect, granting them what they referred to as “protection cards,” which supply some form of amnesty and assurances that they received’t be hunted down.

The spokesman for the insurgents, Hassan Abdul-Ghani, stated greater than 1,600 troopers have utilized for the playing cards over two days in Aleppo metropolis.

Hundreds of defectors lined up outdoors metropolis police stations Thursday to register their particulars with the insurgents.

Hossam al-Bakr, 33, initially from Hama who served in Damascus and defected 4 years earlier to Aleppo, stated he got here to “settle his position” and get a brand new ID.

The laminated card handed out to every defector was titled the “defection card.” It confirmed the identify, ID quantity and place of service of every defector. It is issued by “The General Command: Military Operations Room.”

On Thursday, Maj. Mohamed Ghoneim, who was in command of registering the defectors, stated greater than 1,000 troopers or law enforcement officials got here to register. Some who had been in possession of their official weapons handed them over, he added.

“There are thousands who want to apply,” he stated.

Charles Lister, a longtime Syria skilled, stated whereas many of the worldwide neighborhood has written off the battle as both frozen or completed, the armed opposition has by no means given up and has been coaching for such a situation for years.

A ragtag group of militias, affected by infighting and rivalry, spent years getting ready and organizing, propelled by a dream to regain management of territory from Assad.

“The regime has been more vulnerable over the last year or two than it has perhaps been throughout the entirety of the conflict,” Lister stated. “And it has gotten used to the idea that if it can wait things out, it will ultimately prove to be the victor.”

Karam reported from London.